In a guest column in the AJC Zell Miller details some evidence that the South has been a critical factor in presidential elections for many years. He argues that it is because the Democratic party has abandoned the South that southern voters have turned to the Republican party. Despite my disgust with Zell's support of Bush and the Republicans, I find myself in agreement with him on this point.
When the Republicans emerged on the national scene by electing Lincoln it was clear that the South would not support Republicans for a long time. The GOP were seen as oppressors, sending carpet baggers to undermine southern traditions and institutions. As the southern whites reasserted themselves after Reconstruction they were solidly Democratic.
The Democrats embraced this support since they had clearly lost a lot of clout with Lincoln leading the country in winning the Civil War. Eventually the Democrats emerged as the party of the "little people," supporting FDR which led to an extended period of Democratic dominance nationally. During this time the Dems had to accomodate the South in order maintain the national majority from which they derived their political power. The Republicans were not able to elect another president until Eisenhower, who could have been elected by either party due to his popularity as a war hero. But before that happened the Democrats had a falling out with the South as shown by Strom Thurman's campaign for president under the banner of the Dixiecrat party. That third party candidacy helped Truman get elected, since the Republicans would have won if they'd been able to get the southern states to support their candidate instead of running independently. As Zell indicated, the south was acting as the king makers, with their support being essential to win unless they withdrew from the race by voting in isolation. Again, as Zell said, Truman was the last Democrat to be elected president without carrying the South.
With the defeat of the Dixiecrats many of its prominent members, having already left the Democratic party, switched to the Republican party. The Republicans, having been kept out of the White House for decades, embraced the "New South," doing much to appease their new members in order to have a chance to regain prominence. Meanwhile, the Democrats, having already cut some of their ties with the South, were willing to go along with the Republicans on civil rights legislation which the Dems had been opposing in order to appease the South. Thus this critical piece of legislation was able to pass because of the transition of the South from Democratic control to Republican leanings.
The transition has taken decades, because even with the GOP courting the South there were enough yellow dog Democrats that most southern governors, senators, and other elected officials continued to be Democratic even as the South occasionally voted for Republican presidential candidates. When the South did vote for a Democratic presidential candidate it was, to a large extent and as Zell pointed out, because the candidates were from the South.
Now the transition is nearly complete. Two years ago several state legislators in Georgia switched to the Republican party as soon as the first Republican governor since Reconstruction was elected. It is expected that the Republicans' hold on the state legislature will be solidified with this election.
Before the Dixiecrats the Republicans had pushed for civil rights legislation because they knew that if they could enfranchise the southern black voters they could probably be counted on to vote for the party of Lincoln. However, when the Dixiecrats were embraced by the Republicans, the new black voters in the South became overwhelmingly Democratic. In part this was because you had to vote Democratic to be a factor in politics because most elections were decided in the primaries with the Republicans only able to offer token opposition. I think a more important factor was that southern blacks noted the courting of the southern white vote by Republicans as much as the whites did. In a corallary to the maxim that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," southern blacks could tell that "the friend of my enemy is my enemy." Thus as the Republicans have played to the bigoted southern voters they have cemented the blacks to the Democratic party.
What I think has caught the Republican party off guard is that their courting of the South has worked too well. The South has not been content to simply do whatever the Republicans wanted as they rabidly turned on their former party. Instead they have jockeyed for powerful positions in return for delivering their states. This can be seen in the positions of Trent Lott, Bill Frist, and others in Congress. More than this, the South, specifically the Republicans from Texas, have managed to set the agenda for the Republican party. Rather than being the docile helpmates I suspect the Republicans hoped for, the southern Republicans have become the armed kidnappers who have come in and demanded that the original "owners" of the Republican party play by the new southern rules or be cut down. Thus, the party of Lincoln has become dominated by the heirs of the people that Lincoln defeated in the Civil War.
So I agree with Zell. The Democrats deserted the South. Instead they took the moral path, voting for civil rights rather than continuing to support the Jim Crow laws of the South. Meanwhile, the Republicans have deserted their principles in order to woo the southern states. As the song says, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." The New South isn't all that different from the Old South. It is just that they have found a new puppet to dance to their tune.
Posted by JoKeR at September 16, 2004 09:17 AM | TrackBack