This is uncharted territory for the USA. We have helped people at home and around the world, but never in my memory have we experienced the kind of complete disruption that has happened in New Orleans and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Relief agencies are finally delivering food and water to people who have been stranded in New Orleans, but the major effort is still mostly a matter of assessing the damage and emergency aid rather than begining the rebuilding.

While other areas were hit very hard by Katrina, such as Gulfport, MS which was in the direct path of the hurricane, no other place, to my knowledge, has had to deal with the followon disasters which have hit the Big Easy. The flooding caused by the levees breaking means that it will be weeks at least before the water can be drained so that reconstruction can begin. Roads and other infrastructure cannot be repaired while they remain underwater.

Even once the water is drained, what next? Despite the devastation, there are scattered parts of the city which were on higher ground that have managed to weather the storm. Even now I've read of reports of folks returning to homes where that is possible. But how can living there be sustained? With no electricity and other vital services including water, gas, phone service, etc. still not working, will the early returners be able to stay if there are no stores from which to buy supplies, there are no utilities to support their homes, there are no businesses in which to work?

Clearly the recovery will not be an all or nothing operation. Some areas which were not hit as hard will recover more quickly than those areas which have not yet even been drained. But how well will the areas which begin to return to a semlance of normality be able to function? Will the people who happen to live in those areas also happen to have someplace to work? Will the businesses in those areas still have employees who can operate the businesses? I can easily imagine stores that are ready to reopen, except their employees have not been able to return to the city as well as citizens who return only to find they have no place to work or shop.

In some ways, this will be like the building of a new city. The growth will have to feed on itself. Homes need to be rebuilt/restored so that people have places to live. Stores need to be reopened so that residents have sources of food and other necessities. Businesses need to resume operation so that the citizens have places to work. As some of this gets started then more residents can return which will increase the viability of the stores and enable businesses to ramp up to fuller operations, which in turn will provide incentives for more citizens to return. This is not SimCity, this is Real City.

But how long will it take to reach the point where the resumption of normal activities will gather steam to the point where the city will start to feel like it is not just an empty shell? How many buildings will simply have to be demolished as unsalvagable after the extensive damage inflicted by the storm and the flooding? How quickly will order be restored so that the rebuilding efforts can get underway without danger from scattered looters and other trouble makers? How many people will simply opt not to return so that previously viable businesses no longer have the customer base to support them?

The reconstruction efforts themselves will be the beginning point as buildings are rebuilt or demolished for new construction using insurance reimbursements and government funds. But how is this directed? The ports and oil refineries are essential for the continuing smooth operation of the business of the country, but the work on those cannot proceed without parallel work on the infrastructure that supports the enegy and other needs of those operations as well as the homes and businesses needed by the returning residents who will operate them.

New Orleans could emerge as one of the great modern cities in the country as Munich did after WWII when it was rebuilt almost completely after suffering devasting attacks during that maelstrom. But who is ready to decide when old structures are to be replaced by completely new buildings and when they should simply be restored? Planning across the city needs to address this or a patchwork quilt of old, perhaps even historic, buildings are rebuilt without regard for new construction which might be incompatible with the old buildings. I can imagine a raised structure being the new street level of New Orleans just as Atlanta now has a surface which is actually high off the ground where railways and subways run underneath, but the visible buildings are located with main floors on the elevated level instead of at ground level. But if people want to restore some buildings in their original foundations (assuming that there are some which are salvagable) while others want to demolish adjacent structures to build a new elevated infrastructure, who is ready to make the call on which way the city should go?

The coming months and years are going to see a very different New Orleans rising to fulfill the needs of that part of the country. The refineries and port activities are too important not to rebuild, which means that associated support businesses and residences also must be built. But unless the rebuilding is done with an eye to how to better handle the next catastrophic hurricane, then the efforts made in the near future could wind up being a collosal waste. Let us all hope that leaders who can envision this new New Orleans will act for the good of the future and not just the short term needs of individuals and corporations without a coordinated plan.